The RFK Jr. claims curve is flattening in Texas’s measles outbreak. Do the data agree?

The Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., seemed to involve in recent days that the measles outbreak in western Texas was slowing down.

In Publish in x On Sunday, Kennedy commented on the second death linked to the outbreak, which occurred in a child not vaccinated in school age.

Approximately 10 minutes later, Kennedy edited the position to add that the curve has been flattening since the beginning of March, when he began sending reinforcements of the centers for disease control and prevention, supplying vaccine clinics and other medications.

“Since then, growth rates for new cases and hospitalizations have flattened,” he wrote.

However, data of the Department of Health Services of the Texas State Department showed that the cases are increasing, with More counties in West Texas infections informing.

Katherine Wells, director of Public Health at Lubbock, Texas, said public health officials were projecting “a one -year timeline for outbreak control.”

“This will be a large outbreak, and we are still on the side of the increase in the number of cases, both due to the propagation capacity and the greatest test capacity,” he said.

Public health specialists told ABC News that are skeptical that the curve is flattening and believes that the cases linked to the outbreak are not only increasing, but probably much higher than the official case count.

“This outbreak is far from controlled, even if the curve begins to flatten, we still face great risks in the communities not very vaccinated throughout the country,” said Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist and innovation director, as well as an ABC News taxpayer. “With so many low vaccination pockets, we are still on the verge of generalized and sustained transmission unless urgent measures are taken.”

Probably more cases in Texas

Until Tuesday, there have been 505 cases of measles confirmed in Texas, according to DSHS data.

Between March 28 and April 4, DSHS confirmed 81 cases, one of the highest totals confirmed in a single week since the first cases were identified at the end of January. The Department of Health Services of the Texas State Department does not make hospitalization rates available to the public.

“We know that there have been more cases, at least sustained cases, in the last two months. We know that the size of the outbreak has skipped quite substantially during the last month,” Dr. Craig Spencer, associate professor of the practice of health services, politics and practice at the Brown University School of the Brown University, told ABC News.

ABC News has requested a copy of the data that Kennedy refers to making claims about the flattening of the curve, but has not yet had news of the HHS.

“We do not have a complete image of what is happening in the field due to our inability to reach some communities. Therefore, I would certainly not feel safe to say that we have sold ourselves,” he added.

Spencer said that a reason why he does not feel comfortable by saying that the outbreak has stagnated in Texas is that he believes that the number of cases is probably a lower content.

Texas DSHS said that any case reported after March 16 is incomplete and that additional cases can be reported.

There have been two confirmed deaths linked to the Texas outbreak and a third death in New Mexico is being investigated in a non -vaccinated adult that tested positive after dying.

“We know that there are really, on average, approximately one death for each of around 1,000 cases,” Spencer said. “We have already seen three deaths, which would make you suspect that they are probably more like 3,000 cases.”

“It feels very likely that the count is exceeding 500,” he said, adding: “It is not impossible that there are three deaths among 500 cases, but statistically, one would expect more cases for that number of deaths.”

Dr. Megan Ranney, Dean of Yale’s Public Health School, told ABC News that there is a risk in saying that cases have been flattened when the data can suggest otherwise. Namely, she said she is worried that people can be deterred from being tested or treated.

“We know that many people are avoiding formal medical care and, therefore, tests. There is always a delay in reports even when people are evaluated,” Ranney said. “I worry that people are afraid of trying measles or bringing their children to attention.”

“My other concern is that we still want people to take prevention measures and, of course, we know that the vaccine is not only the safest way, but also the most effective way to prevent measles infection,” he continued.

Kennedy promotes capture treatments not intended for all measles cases

In Second publication on social networks on Sunday nightKennedy shared that he had met the families of the two school -age children who died of measles in Texas, as well as a third family that, according to reports, had a daughter at the ICU for three weeks with measles.

Kennedy said he also met with two doctors who have “treated and cured” some 300 children infected with measles in the Mennonite community with aerosolized and clarithromycin Budesonide.

Aerosol Budesonide is a steroid that is used to reduce inflammation in the lungs, which makes it easier to breathe. Claritromycin is an antibiotic used to treat bacterial infections.

“If I had to go to evidence -based treatment guidelines, there is nothing to say that it should treat patients with Budesonide or clarithromycin,” said Spencer. “Now those are medications that have a broad set of uses, so I am not going to say that they have absolutely any measles indication, or really anything else.”

He said that there are scenarios in which any of the medications can be used in a patient with measles, but is a case of case.

“I don’t think they are hurting anyone, but they are probably not helping anyone,” he added. “They are not in all the tools that I would reach as my first, or really even second, line of tools that I would use in someone who presents with symptoms consisting of measles.”

In an interview with ABC News Live on Monday, Dr. Peter Marks, the former director of the Evaluation and Research Center of the Biological Center within the Food and Medicines Administration, which is reported that it was forced, said Budesonide, Claritromycin and Vitamin A, another treatment backed by Kennedy, they are neither foreseen nor “real treatment” for all cases of Muleo.

He stressed the importance of receiving measles, papers and rubella, or MMR, the vaccine. CDC currently recommended That people receive two doses of the MMR vaccine, the first to the ages of 12 to 15 months and the second between 4 and 6 years. A dose is 93% effective, and two doses are 97% effective against measles or almost 100% effective against measles death after contracting it.

Some people may be at risk of an adverse reaction with any vaccine, so experts say it is important to discuss risks and benefits with a medical care provider.

“It should be an easy decision, as easy as buying a car seat and binding to your son,” Marks said about the vaccine if he is eligible. “He would never lead without his son tied to the seat of his car. You know, if you had an 18 -month -old boy, why would you not give that child something that could prevent your son from dying of an infection when there is a probability of one in 1,000 if they would get measles, they would die for him?”

Dr. Mark Abdelmalek of Abc News contributed to this report.